We looked at data from Portland, Austin, Chicago, Hoboken, & NYC to derive a forecast model for e-scooters (that is pegged to fleet size) and use it to explain the trips that could be substituted from different modes, including access trips to public transit, by distance. For a fleet size of 2000 e-scooters in Manhattan, we predict 75K daily e-scooter trips that could translate to $77M annual revenue. We find that the distance structure of revenue from transit access/egress trips differs from that of other substituted trips. Given e-scooter pilots (e.g. Lime) in NYC now, our insights could be timely for cities to anticipate how e-scooters will impact the mobility ecosystem. The research was partially funded by C2SMART and the paper can be found here:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1361920921001930