By Priya Singh *
Priya Singh is a Masters of Science candidate in Global Security, Conflict and Cybercrime, at NYU’s Center for Global Affairs. Photo by Justin Min on Unsplash
Introduction
Myanmar represents a complex postcolonial society of over 135 ethnic groups, with several insurgent factions engaged in active armed conflict against the central government. Similar to its neighbours India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh – also in the process of developing their individual national identities; minority grievances and ensuing critical issues with citizenship and the State continue to prevail. Within this multilayered framework, Myanmar’s future requires a path towards political inclusivity and a more tolerant multi-ethnic national identity. Within this context, I propose that it is vital to review the U.S. government’s perspective towards Myanmar, as much as it is important to understand the political process of a country which continues to wrestle with the historical legacies of colonialism, military rule, and the “idea of a pre-colonial Burmese majority state.”
Since becoming independent from British colonial rule in 1948, Myanmar –formerly known as Burma– has remained challenged by “competing political ideologies.” (Dash, 2020) After the secession of Burma from Britain’s Indian Empire in 1937, complex internal relationships between various ethnicities and religious minorities have given way to a tug of war between the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s powerful military junta, and the leadership of the National League for Democracy (NLD), founded by Aung San Suu Kyi in 1988, which won the general election in 2015.
As a country in transition, and seeking to break with military rule amidst multiple conflicts, including an ongoing humanitarian crisis in Rakhine State on its western borders, the coup staged by the army earlier this year has further fractured Myanmar’s delicate relationship with its western partners. Adding to this, the country’s economy has contracted due to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Since the beginning of September 2021, “its currency has lost more than 60% of its value.” (Reuters, 2021)
American economic intelligence
Myanmar’s geographic location in the Indo-Pacific region makes it vital to the national security objectives of the United States and its allies vis-a-vis their current strategy to contain China’s influence. The country has in fact been recognized as an important potential partner, yet, the American approach to Myanmar has remained opaque. Two prominent scholars of that region, Armin and Tourangbam, argued in the August 2021 edition of the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs that “the trajectory of the US approach to Myanmar can best be described as misguided oscillation.” While democracy promotion in that country has been a bipartisan issue, “Washington has periodically shifted from limited, to pragmatic engagement.” A clearer approach is thus needed.
The importance of assessing the economic performance of rivals, potential partners and allies has been increasingly recognized in the US in recent years, particularly since the CIA’s intelligence gathering on the Soviet Union; during the 20th century, the United States was concerned about the USSR catching up and advancing its communist economic and political model. In the 21st century, the United States faces China, a rival with a different political and economic ideology. But, while Washington may have cooled towards Myanmar, China has only intensified its efforts. Both country’s geographic proximity, and 71 years of diplomatic relations have enabled China to sign over thirty different trade agreements with Myanmar. All agreements are related to infrastructure development, trade, manufacturing, and the special economic zones tied to Beijing’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative, aligning with China’s vision of the silk roads in the current century.
Myanmar’s strategic importance to China
In 2017, during the height of the Rohingya crisis in Rakhine State, Aung San Suu Kyi traveled to Beijing and agreed to the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Several years prior, in 2009, Xi visited Myanmar as Vice President, to focus on the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone (SEZ) and deep-sea port. The SEZ is a particularly poor area running through Rakhine State. Beijing argues that the development of this impoverished area will improve the economic conditions for a large population that increasingly seeks employment and urbanization. However, the benefits of developing this corridor will also serve Beijing’s geostrategic plans, particularly concerning its energy security. It will give access to shipping lanes for transporting raw materials, including crude oil from the Middle East. Most importantly, access to the Indian ocean from Kyaukphyu provides Beijing with an alternative route to the South China Sea and the Malacca Strait, possibly leading to increased “maritime friction with other major powers.” (Marsten, 2020)
Policy Suggestions
The Trump administration’s declassified report on Myanmar outlined awareness of China’s vital interests in the region. It also stated that Myanmar’s path to success should rely on inclusive, sustainable economic growth, and that “it must integrate its economy into regional and global markets.” This would require prioritizing diplomatic engagement with the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. However, over the past few decades, the United States’ lack of participation in this regional group has created a void, one that China has increasingly moved to fill.
Secondly, the United States should continue to assist the NLD party in building institutional support in the country, but also to increase bilateral trade and investment. However, the other major players in the country, namely the Tatmadaw, several opposition groups and other political actors should also be present at the table. Antagonizing these powerful forces will not serve any purpose, as US policy makers are currently witnessing. (Armin and Tourangbam, 2021)
Third, in order to collect timely and precise economic intelligence, the U.S. must refocus on soft power strategies instead of using a sanctions regime that has proven ineffective elsewhere, such as in Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). In Myanmar, as with the other listed examples, sanctions have affected humanitarian conditions, often for the worse. Instead, soft power strategies (foreign aid, pandemic relief assistance) can assist in building a closer relationship with Myanmar, helping to contain China’s economic expansion in the region. Basically, continuing to isolate Myanmar may pressure the country to rely internationally on a few countries which might not be aligned within the US sphere of influence.
Conclusion
As the United States implements its Indo-Pacific strategy with its partners, Myanmar still has the potential to become an important partner in the years ahead. The national security challenge for the United States would be to maintain primacy in the region with its own market-based economic model, rather than to let China’s economic and political system carry weight in Myanmar.
Failing to assess Myanmar’s economy accurately, its partnership with China and its military junta may result in U.S influence declining in the region, while weakening its ability to further its own economic and strategic goals and interests. Or, as the Trump White house warned: China will exploit a vacuum or opportunity created by any “diminished bonds.”
Bibliography
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