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By Wilson Terrall

This article is part of a longer paper written for the “Future of International Relations” course, and explores the potential future of Nigeria over the next decade by constructing three plausible, distinct scenarios based on a comprehensive set of driving forces that will likely affect the country in the 2020s. In this version, two of the three scenarios are summarized, while the third one –the most optimistic– is included in its entirety.

Photo by Ovinuchi Ejoho on Unsplash.

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Introduction: Nigeria Today

Nigeria is Africa’s largest nation by population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with an overall population of around 220 million people and a nominal GDP of $475 billion, or $1 trillion (purchasing power parity).^[i] Once a British colony, Nigeria witnessed the ascension of a stable, democratically elected government in 1999 following decades of military rule and instability. The 2015 elections saw the first peaceful democratic transfer of power in Nigeria’s post-colonial history with the election of current President Muhammadu Buhari.^[ii]

The national economy relies on large oil and gas reserves, although thus far it has been unable to take advantage of this sector due to rampant corruption and poor infrastructure. In addition to having the largest economy and population in Africa, Nigeria is widely considered to be the cultural capital of the continent. Its film industry, known as Nollywood, produces the second most films in the world after India’s Bollywood and ahead of Hollywood.^[iii] Nigeria’s art and music scenes are equally important. They are centered in the coastal metropolis of Lagos, generally considered to be the most populous and one of the fastest growing cities on the continent.

The development of Nigeria has encountered numerous challenges over the last decade. Like many former colonies in Africa, Nigeria’s borders do not encompass one single religious or ethnic group. There are around 250 ethnic groups in the country, with about 53.5% of Nigerians being Muslim and 45% Christian.^[iv] This reality has created a political divide between the predominantly Muslim North and the Christian South of the country, and provided Boko Haram and other terrorist groups room to operate in the northeast and remote regions. Furthermore, the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has hampered recent economic progress, as unemployment continues to rise and the country experiences its highest inflation in five years.^[v] The Nigerian government has imposed lockdowns and travel restrictions, and total cases and deaths from the virus remain low.

Nigeria must also confront the challenges associated with a rapid rise in population. Over half of its citizenry is under the age of 24.^[vi] This emerging youth demographic has taken the lead in mass social movements in recent years such as the “End SARS” movement protesting police brutality.[vii] For reasons of geography, culture, population and economics, Nigeria is at the heart of contemporary Great Power rivalry in Africa. China has invested $20 billion toward the development of rail infrastructure,^[viii] while the United States has maintained an active military and economic partnership with Nigeria, disbursing over $800 million through USAID in 2020 only.^[ix] In addition, Russia has increased the role of the Wagner Group in several countries surrounding Nigeria including the Central African Republic.

The aforementioned considered, the next decade will be instrumental for Nigeria’s future. There are a variety of important factors that will affect its trajectory in the coming decade, which will have strong implications for its citizens, its neighbors, and consequently the U.S. foreign policy. The relationship between the drivers described below will inform three potential scenarios for Nigeria in 2030: fragmentation, stagnation, and emergence. This article will summarize the first two scenarios and include a more thorough description of the third, before offering an assessment of their value for policymakers. 

Drivers of the Future

Peace and Security

            The colonial legacy of Nigeria has negatively impacted its security. Within its national borders–drawn by European powers– there are over 250 diverse ethnic groups spread out across 36 Nigerian states. This ethnic diversity has created recurrent conflict since independence from Britain in 1960, most notable was the Nigerian Civil War from 1967-1970 when members of the Christian Igbo ethnic group in the southeast attempted to secede and form the Republic of Biafra. Over a million civilians perished, largely from famine and disease, before the rebellious Igbo group surrendered.^[x]

The effects of this conflict persist in the region. Following the ascension of former military dictator President Buhari on a counterterrorism platform, government forces used increasingly heavy-handed measures that killed hundreds if not thousands of Nigerians. This police brutality has recently led to a new secessionist movement called the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), which initially sought a peaceful settlement to the issue of Biafran secession. However, in 2020 an armed wing of the political movement, called the Eastern Security Network (ESN), began to resort to violence against government forces.^[xi] The ESN is one of many groups that has filled the security vacuum in an environment where the government does not have a monopoly on force.^[xii]

Violence and instability threaten the security of other regions in Nigeria as well. In the northeast, Boko Haram has been waging a violent insurgency for over a decade. In the state of Borno, the epicenter of the violence, over 30,000 people have been killed in the last decade. Nationwide, casualty estimates of violent deaths from Boko Haram, state forces and sectarian groups are 80,000 over the same time frame.^[xiii] Violence has even expanded beyond the northeast and the south, where the ESN has been on the rise.

Kidnappings and banditry have spread across rural regions of Nigeria, with insurgent groups like Boko Haram and common criminals contributing to this insecurity, culminating in the kidnapping of 300 schoolchildren in December of 2020.^[xiv] In the next decade, the government’s ability to restore peace and security by addressing the root causes of instability will be one of the principal factors affecting its direction.

COVID-19

            Another major factor that will impact Nigeria’s development in the next decade is the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Thus far total cases and deaths from the virus remain low. Officially, there have only been 200,000 cases and 2,640 deaths.^[xv] Over 5.7 million vaccine doses have been administered, and the government has secured about 85 million more doses. Officials aim to have 70% of the country vaccinated by 2022, though many Nigerians are hesitant to get inoculated due to distrust of the government and the belief that the vaccine will have long-term consequences, polls show.^[xvi]

But the current and future consequences of the pandemic go beyond total numbers or public health considerations Nigeria’s oil industry (and economy in general) has been hit hard since the crisis began and the oil industry –that accounts for half of government revenue– declined by about 65% in 2020.^[xvii] Similar declines have been felt in Nigeria’s informal economy, and World Bank experts believe that the country will not be able to recover from the pandemic unless it diversifies its economy. Therefore, Nigeria’s future will hinge on its ability to vaccinate most of its citizens to contain it. Thus, an effective public health response coordinated with an economic one will be an important indicator of which direction the country will go in.

Economic Diversification and Reform

            As demonstrated by the loss of oil revenues, the Nigerian economy has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. The country experienced a recession in 2020, with GDP contracting by 1.92%,^[xviii] after four years of gradual growth following the previous recession in 2016. A report by Bloomberg Economics found that “while crude [oil] contributes less than 10% to the country’s GDP, it accounts for nearly all foreign-exchange earnings and half of government revenue in the continent’s biggest producer of the commodity.”^[xix] But the price of crude oil has been significantly diminished by the pandemic. Nigeria’s dependence on such a volatile industry makes its prospects for sustainable development grim unless, as pointed out above, it can diversify its economy moving forward.

There have been some positive signs nonetheless, such as the non-oil economy expanding overall in 2020 by 1.7%, driven by 3.4% growth in the agriculture sector and 17.6% in      telecommunications. Room for diversification is evidenced by these trends. Additionally, Nigeria has one of the most influential film industries in the world, reportedly making up 2.3% of total GDP.^[xx] Reforming the economy to be more dynamic would insulate it from external shocks. The country has one of the youngest populations of any large state in the world, and its future depends on whether there will be jobs available when these youths become working adults.

 China and Foreign Direct Investment

            Nigeria’s future will heavily depend (or be largely impacted by) on its principal trading partners as well as its sources of investment. As the largest country by population in Africa, Nigeria is also its largest emerging market. In 2019, it received the fourth-most Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) of any country in Africa, only behind Egypt, South Africa and the Republic of the Congo. Nigeria received $3.3 billion in FDI during said year, down from about $6.2 billion in 2018, primarily due to a “slowdown in the investment in the oil and gas industry.”^[xxi] The United States is currently the largest supplier of FDI in Nigeria^[xxii] but China’s financial role is growing quickly. In fact, Nigeria signed on to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2019.^[xxiii]  

Although the pandemic largely interrupted the flow of FDI and assistance to Nigeria, past infrastructure projects like the Lagos-Kano railway line have awarded contracts to Chinese companies in a potential sign of what is to come.^[xxiv] When the pandemic ends and the global economy begins to recover, Nigeria will have to decide how to balance Chinese investments and its resulting influence with support from the United States and organizations like the International Monetary Fund, which offers loans with significant strings attached. On the other hand, China has shown a willingness to offer low-interest loans with few requirements. A key point of divergence for Nigeria’s future is how willing they will be to embrace Chinese influence, from an economic and security standpoint.

Demographic Change

            The described demographic trends could become a source of strength to the nation in the next decade. They could provide a large and youthful labor force that contrasts with ageing societies in the current global economic powerhouses of China, Japan, the United States and Europe. At the same time, they can also become a source for instability. Nigeria is quickly urbanizing and features some of the largest cities in the world. Between 2007 and 2017 the urban population grew from 41% of the total to over 50%.^[xxv] Lagos leads the way as Nigeria’s largest city with over 13 million people, and there are 7 cities across the country that contain a million or more.^[xxvi] Social services, infrastructure and amenities have not been able to keep up with the rapid pace of growth, and access to health care is minimal.

The government now faces a massive challenge: how to generate economic progress and provide jobs for the millions of young people coming of age. If they fail to do so, the conflict plaguing the northeastern, southern and pastoral areas may have new recruits. Rural citizens fleeing the violence will continue to flood the cities, hampering any efforts to modernize and develop urban areas. The effect of demographic change in Nigeria’s “baby boom” era will depend on a confluence of the other drivers. Crowded cities are susceptible to current and future pandemics. Health care and social programs are difficult to develop in rapidly growing populations. An increased population can thus help lead the country to a prosperous future or create an obstacle to  development efforts, exacerbating existing tensions.      

 Regional Factors      

            These drivers will all be influenced by regional factors. Nigeria is surrounded by nations with similar rates of poverty and instability, even though it dwarfs its neighbors in overall size and influence. Events in other countries in West and Central Africa could be drivers affecting change in Nigeria. Niger, Chad and Northern Cameroon are hotbeds for extremist violence. Groups like Boko Haram frequently retreat across borders or generate refugee flows from other countries. Most recently, the death of the Chadian President on the battlefield forced the Nigerian government to strengthen security on the border.^[xxvii] Any infectious disease outbreak in the region could affect Nigeria’s trajectory, such as an explosion of COVID-19 in Porto-Novo, Benin or a reemergence of the Ebola virus.

Scenario 1: Fragmentation

In this scenario, Nigeria enters 2030 as a fragmented and unstable nation in which the government exercises little control over the country outside of the main cities. Secessionist movements are rampant around the country. Disease, poverty and conflict are more prevalent than at any time since the Civil War 60 years prior. The Boko Haram insurgency holds large swathes of the northeastern part of the country, and a de facto state has emerged in the Niger Delta region in the south under the leadership of the Indigenous People of Biafra. Cattle grazing communities seeking better pastures engage in violent clashes with sedentary farmers across the center of the country as desertification has grown as a result of climate change.^[xxviii] The petroleum industry has been disrupted by the emergence of the Biafra state and profits go to Chinese companies that use bribes and private security forces to keep it flowing. Government revenues are almost nonexistent as FDI has come to a halt.

Nigeria has essentially become a failed state, with a corrupt and ineffective government exerting authority over the Federal Capital Territory surrounding Abuja and Kano to the North. Certain cities near the coasts like Lagos and Port Harcourt maintain relative prosperity in isolated wealthy districts segregated from massive slums. The once proud nation is now destitute with little optimism for the future. Members of the international community and the United Nations weigh breaking up Nigeria into smaller states. This scenario is driven by an extreme outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa upsetting an already tenuous security environment.

Scenario 2: Stagnant Development

            Nigeria in this scenario is a relatively stable country that has emerged from the coronavirus pandemic without serious consequences. The economy has continued its sluggish growth of about 2%, largely because of the government’s failure to diversify away from the petroleum industry and develop new sources of revenue to invest in its people. Over the course of the preceding decade, there have been periods of higher growth and economic optimism followed by a drop in crude oil prices. Nigeria remains vulnerable to shocks from changes in the price of oil and regional events. Inflation has declined from a high of 20% in 2022 but remains in the high single digits, which hampers sustainable growth.^[xxix]

China overtakes the United States as the largest source of FDI in Nigeria, obtaining numerous contracts for Chinese companies to further develop the petroleum industry and infrastructure projects. However, many of these projects are slow to come to fruition, and in 2030 most of the infrastructure plans have yet to be      completed. Most notable are the construction of railway lines from Lagos-Abuja and Lagos-Calabar railroad.^[xxx] Portions have been completed, but the country remains disconnected.

The security situation remains unresolved. Boko Haram has largely been defeated as a major threat, but the effects of climate change have increased violence between pastoralist cattle herders and sedentary farmers across the center of the country. The IPOB remains antagonistic in the south, but their ESN military wing rarely clashes directly with government forces and does not severely threaten the petroleum industry or agricultural development in the region.

Essentially, Nigeria continues its current trajectory, avoiding catastrophes, but failing to take advantage of its massive emerging labor market or achieve critical reforms. This scenario is driven by the confluence of pandemic recovery, security issues, China’s heightened role in the country, and an inability to achieve economic diversification.

 Scenario 3: Emergence

Within this scenario, Nigeria has taken advantage of its abundant labor supply by diversifying its economy, implementing effective anti-corruption policies, and addressing persistent security threats through political reform. In 2030, the country has experienced an average of 8% economic growth despite difficult geopolitical circumstances and more severe effects from the climate change crisis.

Lagos reaches a population of 20 million people^[xxxi] and emerges as Africa’s cultural and economic capital, surpassing Johannesburg as the wealthiest city by GDP. Thanks to a booming technological industry and rapidly expanding entertainment industry, the former becomes one of the most important cities on the planet.^[xxxii] The banking industry also capitalizes on this growth to spur a construction boom that slowly replaces the massive slums that characterized the city’s early development. At the heart of this boom is a reorganization of local government, with power shifting from the Lago State Government to the hands of a newly established metropolitan administration.^[xxxiii] This new government elects a mayor for the first time since 1975 from the dynamic and well-educated class of Lagos’ elite, who implements major reforms that relieves the notorious traffic problems, improves transparency and tax collection, and turns the city into an attractive option for foreign investment.

Nigeria has benefited from the leadership of Lagos as the driving economic force in the country. The security situation in volatile regions of the country is much improved by joint operations within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to defeat Boko Haram and deal with the root causes of instability that led to their rise. In addition, the government largely resolved the conflict with IPOB in the southern states by granting greater regional autonomy.^[xxxiv] Conflict across the center of the country is a problem driven by desertification and internalized divisions.

Most importantly, Nigeria in 2030 is at the very heart of great power competition. The United States and China both compete to have the greatest influence in Africa’s largest and most important state. This competition is primarily economic, though China has contributed surveillance systems and the United States maintains military trainers and drones in the fight against Boko Haram. This scenario is dependent on a swift vaccination campaign that hastens the end of the pandemic. In addition, government reform and domestically developed economic competitiveness are important. These drivers influence security and eventually FDI in Nigeria. In turn, Nigeria emerges on the world stage, not just as a regional force, but a global one as well.

 2021-2022: Ending the Pandemic, Reforming recovery

            In the second half of 2021 and into the next year, President Buhari’s government takes advantage of COVAX programs to boost a massive vaccination campaign in the country. Surplus vaccines from countries like the United States and Europe increase the supply, as do millions of doses from China. In addition, government predictions regarding the domestic production of vaccines by 2022 turns out to be true.

The beginning of production in March of 2022 leads Nigeria to have enough vaccines to inoculate its entire population by the beginning of 2023. Vaccination campaigns begin in the major cities and follow timelines laid out by the NCDC. They are accompanied by a massive public information campaign that recruits local and state leaders to publicly get the shot. The domestic success of vaccine development and the public diplomacy manage vaccine hesitancy to the point that 90% of Nigerians signal their willingness to receive it, up from only 50% in 2021.^[xxxv]    

The economic recovery continued to surprise observers. Sped up by the telecommunications industry led by MTN, along with agricultural growth, the economy began to diversify without government intervention. The price of crude oil increased by 2% from 2021-22, which was significant enough to maintain government revenues but not enough to drive the recovery. Nigerians ended the year looking towards the 2023 elections with optimism, reflected by public opinion polls showing that 60% of citizens trusted the government to lead Nigeria out of the pandemic.

The Boko Haram insurgency continued to fade following an energized military operation by the government into the northeast region. President Buhari initiated negotiations directly with the IPOB and signaled a willingness towards increased regional autonomy for the Igbo people in the southeast. As a result of ongoing negotiations, the ESN reduced operations. By the end of 2022 there was real optimism that a lasting peace could be established in the Niger Delta.

At the same time, pastoralist vs sedentary violence increased. Tensions have been aggravated by the slow and inefficient implementation of the National Livestock Transformation Plan (NLTP), developed in 2018 in the lead up to the 2019 election.^[xxxvi] Both the cattle herding, and farming communities are frustrated by the response, and confrontation becomes more and more frequent as climate change reduces the amount of arable and grazable land.

 2023-2025: Open for Business, Structural Reform

            In February 2023, the incumbent APC party wins a resounding victory in the presidential elections, gaining 5% more votes than they previously had in 2019. Behind President Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, a Muslim from the south of Nigeria, the APC ran on a platform of human rights, ending conflict and corruption, and reforming the country to be “open for business.”^[xxxvii]     President Tinubu immediately set about deepening the ongoing negotiation with the IPOB. In addition, he set up a working group to speed the implementation of the NLTP.

Tinubu organized a summit for local and state leaders across the country for October 1, 2023, Nigeria’s Independence Day. The summit was a historically significant moment and reflected the decades long trend of diverse ethnic groups becoming more nationalistic under their Nigerian identity.^[xxxviii] Taking place in the federal capital of Abuja, the summit went on for ten days and brought the majority of the nation’s stakeholders to one place to work out a wide array of issues. A consistent theme from the conference was the desire of most attendees to return Nigeria to a system of regional autonomy.

One of the most charismatic speakers was former president of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) Dr. Olisa Agbakoba. He spoke passionately about the efforts to implement a devolved federal system from independence to 1966, only to be halted by the military when power was consolidated in a centralized federal system.^[xxxix] In a historical move, President Tinubu endorsed this perspective and other ideas for reform. Those ideas included establishing metropolitan governments headed by elected mayors, as opposed to the existing order in which the state exercises authority over the cities therein.

The summit culminated in the formation of a working group to enact constitutional reform. This working group built upon the National Political Reform Conference of 2006^[xl] and was tasked with developing a new blueprint for reform to be presented on October 1, 2024. The issues at hand included: oil revenue sharing; clear responsibilities for education programs; strengthening the judicial system to confront corruption; eliminating the immunity clause for public officials;^[xli] creating metropolitan government structures; and integration of local military forces under federal jurisdiction. The last issue responded to an important complaint from officials in the Borno state. This state experiences the brunt of Boko Haram’s violence and stipulated that the federal military response harmed civilians and made the population of Borno feel like they were living under an occupation.

Over the course of the next year, President Tinubu sought to signal his commitment to the impending constitutional reform to the world. First and foremost, he established increased transparency for all contracts with foreign governments. The United States increased its FDI      in Nigeria, as did China. (In 2011, FDI reached a peak in Nigeria of $8.84 billion, then declined to $3.3 billion just before the pandemic.)^[xlii] By the middle of 2025, Nigeria was on pace to receive $14 billion, and anticipated a significant increase following the constitutional reforms. China, Europe and the United States competed for influence, and economic growth would rise to 7% in the first two quarters of 2025.

Security issues in the central regions of the country continued to decline with the energetic implementation of the NLTP. The government invested $50 million to enforce the new rules and regulations. Areas for grazing and farming were clearly delineated and law enforcement doubled the number of prosecutions for violations. These processes also benefited from increased transparency and statistics that could be depended upon.

Early 2025 witnessed a spike in the development of Lagos. The Eko Atlantic mega project was finally completed. It created a peninsula out of reclaimed land from the Atlantic Ocean jutting out from Victoria Island, the heart of Nigeria’s megacity. The development created residential areas for 250,000 residents and brought in billions of dollars through investments.^[xliii] In the same period, the Lagos light rail was finally completed after over a decade of construction.^[xliv] This modern infrastructure cut traffic congestion in the city by half and represented a significant achievement for China, the largest funding source for both projects. Twenty-four-hour power and sanitation projects finally came to fruition.^[xlv] The Lagos economy had grown by 12% in 2023-2024, and 2025 saw an increase to 15%. This dramatic growth provided the engine driving Nigeria’s economic success. The megacity became a symbol of optimism for the people of Nigeria and a distraction from the still-rampant inequality in the city and around the country.

The constitutional reform conference reconvened to implement the new reforms in October of 2025. Weeks of negotiating changed the nature of the reforms on the margins, but within a month the government was ready for its implementation. By the end of the year, a massive shift in the transparency, structure, and efficiency of the Nigerian national government came into being.

 2026-2030: Emergence

            The rest of the decade saw Nigeria slowly implement national reforms. Behind the strong leadership of President Tinubu and the APC, these reforms were gradually integrated into the federal system. The people of Nigeria provided a mandate for the government, reelecting Tinubu in a landslide and gaining seats for the APC. The biggest issue continued to be security and inequality. The remnants of Boko Haram were effectively eliminated by an ECOWAS military coalition, but the human toll in Borno remained immense.

Humanitarian aid from the international community was funneled to the people there, and food security remains a problem at the end of the decade. The same can be said for the “Middle Belt” across central Nigeria. Violence waned with the reforms, but available space for a growing population of both cattle herders and farmers continued to shrink. The immediate effects were even faster rates of urbanization.

By 2030, 60% of Nigerians lived in cities, up from 51% five years earlier.^[xlvi] As the wealthiest class of Nigerians capitalized on the booming economy, those at the bottom remained poor. The gap between the two increased rapidly and the government proved unprepared to develop policies redistributing wealth. Many states did not reap the benefits of the economic expansion, breeding resentment in regions like the southeast and central areas of Nigeria. American and Chinese companies competed to gain access to the emerging market, continuing to be the principal drivers of FDI.

 Conclusion: 

            These three scenarios highlight the most important factors that will influence Nigeria’s future and offer a pathway for policymakers to focus their efforts and anticipate risk. First and foremost is the urgent need to effectively deal with the pandemic. In each scenario, the capacity of the Nigerian government to contain the virus and vaccinate its population were the primary drivers directing the country’s trajectory. When the pandemic was not contained, the fragile security situation was increasingly exposed. So too were economic flaws.

The capacity to mitigate the consequences of the pandemic depended on access to vaccines, the spread of the virus, and diversifying sources of government revenue and income generation. Urgency surrounding the proper management of these threats is heightened by the lingering insecurity across wide swathes of the country. The pandemic provides President Buhari’s government with an opportunity to prove that it can work for the people. Simultaneously, it can reinforce public opinion that the government cannot be trusted and is ineffective. Scenario construction can thus help Nigerian leaders and international actors prioritize policies and anticipate risks to create a more peaceful, prosperous, and beneficial future for Nigeria.

^[i] World Bank, “Nigeria Overview”

^[ii] Oxford Business Group, “Democratic Transfer of Power in Nigeria as the Opposition Wins the 2015 Presidential Elections.”

^[iii] The Economist, “Nigeria’s Film Industry Has Taken a Viral Knock.”

^[iv] World Bank, “Nigeria Overview.”

^[v] Chege, Christine, “The Road to 2023: What to Look out for Ahead of Nigeria’s Elections.”

^[vi] World Bank, “Nigeria Overview.”

[vii] Busari, Stephanie, “Nigeria’s Youth Finds Its Voice with the ENDSARS Protest Movement.”

^[viii] Akeredolu, Fikayo, “Why Is China Interested in Nigeria?”

^[ix] U.S. Department of State, “U.S. Relations With Nigeria – United States Department of State.”

^[x] Campbell, John, “Home to Over Half the Population, Nigeria’s Cities Continue to Boom.”

^[xi] Mbachu, Dulue et al, “Nigeria’s Unhappy Union: How Growing Insecurity Threatens the Country’s Future.”

^[xii] Mbachu, Dulue et al, “Nigeria’s Unhappy Union: How Growing Insecurity Threatens the Country’s Future.”

^[xiii] Campbell, John, “Nigeria Security Tracker.”

^[xiv] The Economist, “More than 300 Schoolchildren Are Abducted in Nigeria.”

^[xv] World Health Organization, “Nigeria: WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard With Vaccination Data.”

^[xvi] Usigbe, Leon, “Nigeria: COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout Kicks off in Africa’s Most Populous Country.”

^[xvii] Chinery, Nafi et al, “Nigeria: Updated Assessment of the Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Extractive Sector and Resource Governance.”

^[xviii] Soto, Alonso, “Africa’s Largest Economy Unexpectedly Exits Recession.”

^[xix] World Bank, “Nigeria Overview.”

^[xx] World Bank, “Nigeria Overview”

^[xxi] UNCAD, “International Production beyond the Pandemic.” page 34

^[xxii] U.S. Department of State, “U.S. Relations With Nigeria – United States Department of State.”

^[xxiii] Herbert, Natalie, “Analysis | China’s Belt and Road Initiative Invests in African Infrastructure – and African Military and Police Forces.”

^[xxiv] Railway Technology, “Abuja-Kaduna Rail Line.”

^[xxv] Campbell, John, “Home to Over Half the Population, Nigeria’s Cities Continue to Boom.”

^[xxvi] Campbell, John, “Home to Over Half the Population, Nigeria’s Cities Continue to Boom.”

^[xxvii] Abu-Bashal, Adam, “Nigeria Beefs up Security along Border with Chad.”

^[xxviii] Ilo, Udo Jude et al, “The Deadliest Conflict You’ve Never Heard Of.”

^[xxix] Al Jazeera, “Nigeria: Inflation Hits Four-Year Peak as Food Prices Soar.”

^[xxx] Reuters, “China Railway Construction Wins $12 Billion Nigeria Deal: Xinhua.”

^[xxxi] World Population Review, “Lagos Population 2021.”

^[xxxii] Pilling, David, “Nigerian Economy: Why Lagos Works.”

^[xxxiii] Ojo, Silas, “Mayor of Lagos?”

^[xxxiv] Klomegah, Kester Kenn, “Regional Autonomy Could Resolve Nigeria’s Multifaceted Problems.”

^[xxxv] Usigbe, Leon, “Nigeria: COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout Kicks off in Africa’s Most Populous Country.”

^[xxxvi] Ilo, Udo Jude et al, “The Deadliest Conflict You’ve Never Heard Of.”

^[xxxvii] Irede, Akin, “Nigeria: Will Tinubu Choose a Muslim Running Mate for 2023?”

^[xxxviii] Aina, Fola et al, “Don’t Call Nigeria a Failed State.”

^[xxxix] Onyekwere, Joseph, “Regional Autonomy Solution to Nigeria’s Problems, Says Agbakoba.”

^[xl] Helly, Damien, “Nigeria’s Stability: Constitutional Reform and Beyond.” page 7

^[xli] Helly, Damien, “Nigeria’s Stability: Constitutional Reform and Beyond.” page 5

^[xlii] World Bank, “Nigeria Overview.”

^[xliii] Anyango, Anita, “Top Ongoing Mega Projects in Nigeria.”

^[xliv] Anyango, Anita, “Top Ongoing Mega Projects in Nigeria.”

^[xlv] Pilling, David, “Nigerian Economy: Why Lagos Works.”

^[xlvi] World Bank, “Nigeria Overview.”

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