The World Mourns the Death of Dr. Paul Farmer, Pioneer of Global Health

On Feb 21, 2022, the world mourns the death of an influential figure, Dr. Paul Farmer.  He was not only a physician but also a public health advocate.  After his college graduation, he volunteered in Haiti and was very taken by the fact that patients had to pay for basic supplies in advance of receiving treatment. 

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The Federal Infrastructure Bill Forces Urban Planners to Protest Against Outdated Rainfall Data

The groundbreaking federal infrastructure bill has revealed a nationwide gap in the data used to guide urban development; as states and cities are looking to improve the stormwater drainage system, questions arise on how much annual rainfall rates are expected to change in the next 100 years. In the past, cities turned to historical data collected and stored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Many times, the data is piecemeal and updated every few decades, this is problematic since it does not account for the change in weather patterns due to global warming. The explanation offered is that states have to request updates and pay for the reports and few have sought the need to do so since this issue is not visible unless a rare major flooding event occurs. Additionally, the NOAA Atlas 14 reports do not provide projections of future rainfall rates, forcing officials to blindly depend on outdated information to upgrade the infrastructure. A handful of large cities have partnered with universities to overcome this challenge, and have found that they have significantly underestimated the volume of rainfall that is likely to occur, forcing them to revise the investments and increase spending to ensure that the drainage system lasts 100 years and does not become obsolete before its due. Strategies to reduce costs involve updating and analyzing the whole countries data all at once rather than in a piecemeal fashion, using projections rather than historical data, and updating the infrastructure using this new information. 

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Coronavirus Found in Deers

A recent article published by the New York Times reports that 60% of deer killed in Iowa in December 2020 were found to have evidence of coronavirus in frozen lymph node samples. The concern of Dr. Casey Barton Behravesh, the director of the One Health Office in the CDC, is that deer may become reservoirs of the virus. If this occurs, there is a possibility that the virus could mutate and become transmissible to other animals or humans.

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COVID-19 Forces Humanitarian Aid to Adopt the “Localization” Model

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, humanitarian aid agencies would fly aid specialists to areas experiencing a disaster event to provide resources and support.  However, due to the pandemic, aid response had to adapt to a new “contactless” model in which “supplies are sent from abroad, local groups take charge, and foreign experts provide support over the phone or through Zoom meetings”.  It made its debut in Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands, and other countries after Cyclone Harold in April 2020.  The main advantage of this new response strategy is that it empowers local communities to take the lead, utilize local resources, and have a more efficient and effective impact in distributing aid. This has the potential to create a more appropriate and sustainable approach to relief. This model still requires some revision, there are potential gaps that can diminish its usefulness such as inefficiencies in communication, supply chain mechanisms, and short staffing. Another important issue to consider is that the local responders will have been impacted by the disaster, additional support may need to be provided to them. This new mode of relief is now being challenged in Tonga, where it was recently hit with a volcano eruption and tsunami, as well as its first coronavirus outbreak.  

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Cyclone Batsirai Displaces 55,000 People and Kills 20 People in Madagascar

Cyclone Batsirai is the second-biggest cyclone to hit southern Africa this year and has caused at least 20 deaths and more than 55,000 others displaced in Madagascar. As a result, approximately 3000 dwellings and government buildings were destroyed with flooding in a further 5700 in Mananjary and nearby towns. 

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Do lockdowns reduce COVID-19 mortality? A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis

In a literature review and meta-analysis published by the John Hopkins Institute of Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise; Herby, Jonung, and Hanke analyze the effects of lockdowns on COVID-19 mortality rates. In this article, lockdowns are defined as compulsory non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) involving any government mandate that “directly restricts peoples’ possibilities”. This includes a restriction to movement, mask mandates, and closing schools and businesses, etc.

Using a systematic search, the authors screened 18,590 studies from Google scholar, SCOPUS, and Covid economic with 24 studies matching the eligibility and inclusion criteria.  The authors included articles that directly attempted to find a relationship between policies and mortality or excess mortality rates and excluded studies measuring other rates such as cases, hospitalizations, or other measures. Studies using models, forecasting, pre-post study design, synthetic control methods, and time-series studies were also excluded from the analysis.

All of the studies that were included in the analysis, except for one, were using data from and published in 2020. Out of the 34 studies that were eligible, 22 were peer-reviewed and 12 were working papers. The studies were predominantly observing global populations or populations living in the United States with the rest of the studies covering European countries. The studies measured the effects of stringent lockdowns (higher OxCGRT stringency index), shelter-in-place-orders (SIPO), NPI (non-pharmaceutical interventions), and length of lockdowns.

The authors report that there is an unclear relationship between lockdowns and mortality when looking at an overview of the studies; some studies did not find a statistically significant effects, others studies found a negative impact, and the rest found a positive effect. The authors included quality dimensions during the meta-analysis portion of the research to distinguish and account for the difference in study design and methodology of the articles. 

Overall, the results do not confirm that lockdowns have a significant impact on mortality rates; it was found that stringent lockdowns have reduced the mortality rates by 0.2%, SIPO by 2.9%, and NPI’s have not had any effect.  However, the closure of non-essential businesses have had a significant impact by producing a 10.6% reduction in mortality rates (this is likely to be attributed to the closure of bars).

Read the full review article here