Tag Archives: Risk

Brooklyn Quant Experience Lecture Series: George Skiadopoulos

April 20, 2021 Novicki Leave a comment

George Skiadopoulos, Professor of Finance in the School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London and Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus, will give the following talk on Thursday, April 22nd at 9:30 AM EST.
*Kindly note that we have changed the time to 9:30 AM on Thursdays. The new time change allows our invited international guests to join these important virtual talks.

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Meeting ID: 962 1586 0443
Password: FREBQEGS

Title

The Contribution of Frictions to Expected Returns: An Options-based Estimation Approach

Abstract

We document that properly scaled deviations from put-call parity estimate the contribution of market frictions to expected returns (CFER) accurately, by means of a nonparametric theoretically founded identification strategy. The required conditions are that our estimator predicts the underlying but not the synthetic stock’s return. The data satisfy the two conditions; the alphas of the estimated CFER-sorted spread portfolios are up to 1.86% per month. The estimated CFER covaries non-linearly with proxies of market frictions. An agent-based equilibrium model explains our findings; alphas can be twice as big as the round-trip transaction costs, thus corroborating the accuracy of our estimator.

Bio

George Skiadopoulos is a Professor of Finance at the Department of Banking and Financial Management of the University of Piraeus and at the School of Economics and Finance of Queen Mary University of London. He is also Director and co-Founder of the Institute of Finance and Financial Regulation (IFFR, www.iffr.gr) and an Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow at Business School (formerly Cass) City, University of London.

His research interests and professional expertise lie in asset pricing, commodities, financial derivatives, risk management, and portfolio management. He has published in academic journals, including the Management Science, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Banking and Finance, and the Journal of Financial Markets. He has been awarded research grants by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Foundation Group, the J.P. Morgan Research Centre in Commodities at University of Denver Colorado, the Athens Derivatives Exchange, and the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT). His work has been featured in CFO Magazine, Economonitor, Forbes, Market Watch, Seeking Alpha, The Verdict Wall Street Journal, and the CFA, Citigroup, and Global Commodities Applied Research Digest Volumes.

Professor Skiadopoulos has been consulting financial institutions. He has also worked as a Research Fellow at the Financial Options Research Centre at Warwick Business School, the R&D Group of the Athens Derivatives Exchange, and he has provided various executive training courses.

He holds a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Warwick, an M.Sc. In Mathematical Economics and Econometrics from the London School of Economics, and a Ptychion (ranked first in his graduating class) in Economics from the Athens University of Economics and Business. For more information, visit https://sites.google.com/view/george-skiadopoulos.

Seminar

Brooklyn Quant Experience Lecture Series: Sasha Stoikov

April 12, 2021 Novicki Leave a comment

Sasha Stoikov, Senior Research Associate at Cornell Financial Engineering Manhattan (CFEM), will give the following talk on Thursday, April 15th at 9:30 AM EST.
*Kindly note that we have changed the time to 9:30 AM on Thursdays. The new time change allows our invited international guests to join these important virtual talks.

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Meeting ID: 942 9844 6763
Password: FREBQESS

Title

The Microstructure of Cointegrated Assets

Abstract

I will present a generalization of the micro price to multiple assets. This yields a notion of fair prices, as a function of the observable state of multiple order books. I will show how to compute the microprices of two highly cointegrated assets, using Level-1 data collected on Interactive Brokers. I will then test the model by designing an execution algorithm based on this two-dimensional microprice and show that it can save half of the bid-ask spread cost.

Bio

Sasha Stoikov has 15 years of experience at the interface of academia, startups, and the financial industry. He is a Senior Research Associate at Cornell Financial Engineering Manhattan (CFEM) and was a VP of High Frequency Trading at Cantor Fitzgerald. He has also launched a music tech startup called PIKI.

Seminar

Brooklyn Quant Experience Lecture Series: Samim Ghamami

April 7, 2021 Novicki Leave a comment

Samim Ghamami, Senior Researcher at NYU and UC Berkeley, Senior Economist and Managing Director at the Financial Services Forum, and an Adjunct Professor of Finance at New York University, will give the following talk on Thursday, April 8th at 9:30 AM EST.
*Kindly note that we have changed the time to 9:30 AM on Thursdays. The new time change allows our invited international guests to join these important virtual talks.

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Meeting ID: 950 8799 6334
Password: FREBQESG

Title

The Impact of Collateral and Stays on Financial Stability

Abstract

We study the spread of losses and defaults in financial networks with two features: collateral requirements and resolution and bankruptcy stay rules. When collateral is committed to a firm’s counterparties, a solvent firm may default if it lacks sufficient liquid assets to meet its payment obligations. Collateral requirements can thus increase the risk of contagion. Moreover, one firm may benefit from the failure of another if the failure frees collateral committed by the surviving firm, giving it additional resources to make other payments. Contract termination at default may also similarly improve the ability of other firms to meet their obligations. As a consequence of these features, the timing of payments and collateral liquidation must be carefully specified to establish the existence of payments that clear the network. Using this framework, we show that committed collateral in the form of initial margin in over-the-counter derivatives markets may increase contagion and financial instability. We also compare networks under different stay rules in OTC markets. Our analysis shows that when firms are not highly leveraged in terms of derivatives transactions, full contract termination may reduce contagion.

Bio

Samim Ghamami is a senior researcher at NYU and UC Berkeley, the senior economist and managing director at the Financial Services Forum, and an adjunct professor of finance at New York University. Ghamami also serves on the advisory board of the Mathematics in Finance Program at the NYU Courant Institute. He has also been a senior financial economist and senior vice president at Goldman Sachs, an associate director, and a senior economist at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Financial Research, and an economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Ghamami’s work has broadly focused on financial economics and more recently on the interplay of finance and macroeconomics. Ghamami has been an advisor to the Bank for International Settlements and has also worked as an expert with the Financial Stability Board on post-financial crisis reforms. He served on the National Science Foundation panel on Financial Mathematics in 2017 and 2018.

Seminar

Brooklyn Quant Experience Lecture Series: Keith Lewis

February 1, 2021 Novicki Leave a comment

Welcome back to the spring 2021 semester. We hope that you all are doing well and look forward to a productive year.

Below please find the first BQE Lecture Series scheduled this semester. Kindly note that we have changed the time to 9:30 AM on Thursdays. The new time change allows our invited international guests to join these important virtual talks.

Keith Lewis, Managing Member of KALX, LLC, will give the following talk on Thursday, February 4th at 9:30 AM EST.

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Meeting ID: 953 8089 0352
Password: FREBQEKL

Title

A Unified Model of Derivative Securities

Abstract

Market instruments can be bought or sold at a price and ownership entails cash flows. Shares of instruments can be traded based on available information that accrue to positions. The mark-to-market value and amounts involved with trading correspond to price and cash flows. The Unified Model demonstrates the connection between dynamic trading and how to value, hedge, and manage the risk of a derivative security. It can be used for any portfolio of instruments. Every arbitrage-free model of prices and cash flows is parameterized by a vector-valued martingale whose components are indexed by market instruments and a positive, adapted process called a deflator. If repurchase agreements are available they determine a canonical deflator.

Bio

Keith A. Lewis started his professional career as a J. D. Tamarkin assistant professor at Brown where he pioneered the use of computers as a classroom tool in mathematics. He went on to a Wall Street career at Bankers Trust, Morgan Stanley, and Banc of America Securities where his team built the equity derivative libraries used by the trading desk to run their business. Since 2002 Keith has been a consultant for hedge funds building valuation models and tools for exploring, testing, and implementing trading strategies. Other projects include insurance companies involved with GPU computing, law firms certifying tax conformance of trades, and municipal bond advance refunding. He has spun off a number of open source projects based on his experience with building tools his clients found useful and has been using them in courses he has taught at NYU, Rutgers, Cornell, and Columbia.

Seminar

Brooklyn Quant Experience Lecture Series: Oleg Bondarenko

November 18, 2020 Novicki Leave a comment

The Department of Finance and Risk Engineering welcomes Oleg Bondarenko, Professor, the University of Illinois at Chicago, to the BQE Lecture Series on Thursday, November 19, 2020, at 6 p.m. on Zoom.

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Meeting ID: 991 8744 0867
Password: BQEOB

Title

Option-Implied Dependence and Correlation Risk Premium

Abstract

We propose a novel model-free approach to obtain the joint risk-neutral distribution among several assets that is consistent with all market prices of options on these assets and their weighted index. In an empirical application, we use options on the S&P 500 index and its nine industry sectors. The results of our analysis reveal that the option-implied dependence for the nine sectors is highly non-normal, asymmetric, and time-varying. The estimated joint distribution allows us to study two conditional correlations: when the market moves down or up. We find that the risk premium for the down correlation is strongly negative, while the opposite is true for the up correlation. These findings are consistent with the economic intuition that investors dislike the loss of diversification when markets fall, but they actually prefer high correlation when markets rally.

Bio

Oleg Bondarenko is a Professor of Finance at the University of Illinois at Chicago. He received an MS degree from the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology and a Ph.D. from the California Institute of Technology. His primary research interests include option pricing, financial econometrics, and market microstructure. His research has appeared in top Finance and Economics journals and has been featured in Morningstar, Economist, and other media outlets.

Professor Bondarenko has consulted with several investment firms and currently serves on the Product Development Committee of Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe). His research has been supported by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Cboe, Institute of Structured Finance, and Derivatives, among others. He has written two research studies commissioned by Cboe. Professor Bondarenko held visiting faculty positions at the Olin School of Business, Washington University in St. Louis, and Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University.

Seminar

November 18, 2020 Novicki Leave a comment

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Meeting ID: 991 8744 0867
Password: BQEOB

Title

Option-Implied Dependence and Correlation Risk Premium

Abstract

Bio

Seminar

Brooklyn Quant Experience Lecture Series: David Shimko

November 12, 2020 Novicki Leave a comment

The Department of Finance and Risk Engineering welcomes David Shimko, NYU Tandon, Industry Full Professor, to the BQE Lecture Series on Thursday, November 12, 2020, at 6 p.m. on Zoom.

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Meeting ID: 993 5500 0941
Password: BQEDS

Title

A Theory of Equivalent Expectations Measures for Expected Prices of Contingent Claims

Abstract

Reframing modern portfolio theory with Gaussian cash flows rather than percentage returns, the CFPM (cash flow portfolio model) sets a structural foundation for valuing both traditional capital assets and derivatives. Asset prices are shown to be decreasing functions of both cash flow covariances and variances. The usual single-period CAPM formulas follow, but the expected returns are determined endogenously. All risk is implicitly priced in expected returns, leading to reinterpreted rules for portfolio selection and capital budgeting. Derivatives obey the same total covariance-based pricing relationships as cash flows, except that they exist in zero net supply. After applying a regularity condition, the Bachelier option pricing model obtains in a discrete-time setting without continuous trading. The closed-form CFPM extends to multiple periods. The multiperiod CFPM generalizes risk-neutral pricing to discrete multi-period contingent claim models, such as valuing the capital structure of a firm and CDOs.

Bio

Professor Shimko joined FRE in 2017 following a 30+ year career in investment banking and consulting. After beginning his career as an Assistant Professor at USC, he left to become a Vice President at JPMorgan, and a Principal at Bankers Trust. He co-founded Risk Capital, a successful independent risk management consulting firm, which was sold in 2006. Since that time, he has combined private consulting with entrepreneurial ventures in asset management and credit. His current research focuses on advanced valuation techniques, such as the application of derivative pricing technology to corporate assets, liabilities, and decisions.

Seminar

Brooklyn Quant Experience Lecture Series: Sanjay Nawalkha

November 2, 2020 Novicki Leave a comment

The Department of Finance and Risk Engineering at NYU Tandon School of Engineering, welcomes Sanjay K. Nawalkha, Professor of Finance, University of Massachusetts, to the BQE Lecture Series on Thursday, November 5, 2020, at 6 p.m. on Zoom.

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Meeting ID: 945 2031 9822
Password: BQESN

Title

A Theory of Equivalent Expectations Measures for Expected Prices of Contingent Claims

Abstract

This paper introduces a theory of equivalent expectation measures, such as the R measure and the R1T measure, generalizing the martingale pricing theory of Harrison and Kreps (1979) for deriving analytical solutions of expected prices (both the expected current price and the expected future price) of contingent claims. We also present new R-transforms which extend the Q-transforms of Bakshi and Madan (2000) and Duffie et al. (2000), for computing the expected prices of a variety of standard and exotic claims under a broad range of stochastic processes. Finally, as a generalization of Breeden and Litzenberger (1978), we propose a new concept of the expected future state price density which allows the estimation of the expected future prices of complex European contingent claims as well as the physical density of the underlying asset’s future price, using the current prices and only the first return moment of standard European OTM call and put options.

Bio

Sanjay Nawalkha is a Professor of Finance at the Isenberg School of Management. His areas of research are fixed income valuation, derivative pricing, and asset pricing. Professor Nawalkha chaired the Finance Department at the Isenberg School of Management from Sept. 2011 until August 2018. He has co-authored four books, Dynamic Term Structure Modeling: The Fixed Income Valuation Course (Wiley & Sons, 2007), Interest Rate Risk Modeling: The Fixed Income Valuation Course (Wiley & Sons, 2005), Interest Rate Risk Measurement and Management (Institutional Investors, 1999) and Closed-Form Duration Measures and Strategy Applications (The Research Foundation of the Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts, 1990). He has published over 35 scholarly articles in the areas of term structure modeling, risk management, and arbitrage pricing theory.

Seminar

Brooklyn Quant Experience Lecture Series: Claudio Tebaldi

February 18, 2020 Novicki Leave a comment

Dear All,

You are cordially invited to the Brooklyn Quant Experience Lecture Series (BQE) on Thursday, February 20th at 6PM in the Event MakerSpace – 6 MetroTech Center, 1st Floor.

Dr. Claudio Tebaldi will present a talk on the following topic:

Title:

Arbitrage Pricing Implications of Cascade Risk

Abstract

Traditional approach to valuation by (no) arbitrage has focused on the impact on prices of systematic risk factors. In fact firm-specific risks are assumed to be completely diversifiable. In our research we reconsider intertemporal asset pricing in an economy where distress shocks can propagate through a network of inter-firm connections. It can be shown under general conditions that two classes of equilibria emerge. In the first, firm-specific shocks are diversifiable and do not affect investor expectations. In the second, they generate non-diversifiable cascades that amplify arbitrage risk giving rise to a risk premium component not accountable by any systematic factor. We analyze the impact of cascades on stock and option prices and expected returns. We exemplify our findings focusing on the pricing of claims written on assets of financial intermediaries connected by a network of debt-credit claims.

Bio:

Claudio Tebaldi is a tenured faculty member of the Department of Finance, L. Bocconi University Milano. Associate professor in the field of Quantitative Methods for Economics, Finance and Insurance since 2011, he holds the National Qualification for Full Professorship since 2015. He is a fellow of IGIER and Baffi-CAREFIN research centers and has been Visiting Scholar at UCLA Anderson School of Business. His research interests range in the areas of Derivative, Asset pricing and Portfolio management. His papers are published in leading peer-reviewed journals like the Review of Financial Studies, Mathematical Finance, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis and Journal of Econometrics and two of them have been awarded: one in September 2019 by the Canadian Derivatives Institute as Best Paper in Derivatives of the Northern Finance Association Meeting, one in January 2007 as Best Paper of the Swiss Econometrics and Finance Society Meeting. He is currently serving as Managing Editor of Quantitative Finance.

We look forward to having you join us for the talk and refreshments.

Click on link below for the full spring BQE Lecture Series:
https://engineering.nyu.edu/academics/departments/finance-and-risk-engineering/upcoming-events

Seminar

Brooklyn Quant Experience Lecture Series: Harvey Stein

February 11, 2020 Novicki Leave a comment

Dear All,

You are cordially invited to the Brooklyn Quant Experience Lecture Series (BQE) on Thursday, February 13th at 6PM in LC 400, Dibner Building, 5 MetroTech Center – 4th Floor.

Dr. Harvey Stein will present a talk on the following topic:

Title:

A Unified Framework for Default Modeling

Abstract

Credit risk models largely bifurcate into two classes — the structural models and the reduced form models. Attempts have been made to reconcile the two approaches by adjusting filtrations to restrict information, but they are technically complicated and tend to approach filtration modification in an ad-hoc fashion.

Here we propose a reconciliation inspired by actuarial science’s approach to survival analysis. We model the survival curve and hazard rate curve as stochastic processes. This puts default models in a form resembling the HJM framework for interest rates, yielding a unified framework for default modeling.

Predictability of default has a simple interpretation in this framework. The framework enables us to disentangle predictability and the distribution of the default time from calibration decisions such as whether to use market prices or balance sheet information. It supplies a formal framework for combining models, yielding a simple way to define new default models.

Bio:

Dr. Harvey J. Stein is Head of the Quantitative Risk Analytics Group at Bloomberg, responsible for Bloomberg’s market risk and credit risk models. Dr. Stein is well known in the industry, having published and lectured on mortgage backed security valuation, CVA calculations, interest rate and FX modeling, credit exposure calculations, financial regulation, and other subjects. Dr. Stein is also on the board of directors of the IAQF, an adjunct professor at Columbia University, a board member of the Rutgers University Mathematical Finance program and of the NYU Enterprise Learning program, and organizer of the IAQF/Thalesians financial seminar series. He received his BA in mathematics from WPI in 1982 and his PhD in mathematics from UC Berkeley in 1991.

We look forward to having you join us for the talk and refreshments.

Collaborative events organized by Bloomberg LP, Global Risk Institute, Cornell Financial Engineering Manhattan, International Association of Quantitative Finance (IAQF), NYU Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, and NYU Tandon School of Engineering.