Conservative:
An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario
and Its Implications for
United States National Security
by
Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
October 2003
A Report for the Pentagon
Syllabus
Arctic Temperatures 45 degrees above normal
Next
Only an Expert Can Deal With A Problem
Laurie Anderson was THE mover and shaker of the cultural avant-garde during the closing decades of the twentieth century. Her iconic status is preserved by those who know her body of work.
This song is her pointed response to issues of her day, issues that persist today as well. The embedded video at the end of this post is not by Laurie Anderson but does a great job of illustrating her lyrics.
Now only an expert can deal with the problem
Because half the problem is seeing the problem
And only an expert can deal with the problem
Only an expert can deal with the problem
So if there’s no expert dealing with the problem
It’s really actually twice the problem
Cause only an expert can deal with the problem
Only an expert can deal with the problem
Now in America we like solutions
We like solutions to problems
And there’s so many companies that offer solutions
Companies with names like Pet Solution
The Hair Solution. The Debt Solution. The World Solution. The Sushi Solution
Companies with experts ready to solve the problems
Cause only an expert can see there’s a problem
And only an expert can deal with the problem
Only an expert can deal with the problem
Now let’s say you’re invited to be on Oprah
And you don’t have a problem
But you want to go on the show, so you need a problem
So you invent a problem
But if you’re not an expert in problems
You’re probably not going to invent a very plausible problem
And so you’re probably going to get nailed
You’re going to get exposed
You’re going to have to bow down and apologize
And beg for the public’s forgiveness
Cause only an expert can see there’s a problem
And only an expert can deal with the problem
Only an expert can deal with the problem
Now on these shows, the shows that try to solve your problems
The big question is always “How can I get control?
How can I take control?”
But don’t forget this is a question for the regular viewer
The person who’s barely getting by
The person who’s watching shows about people with problems
The person who’s part of the 60% of the U.S. population
1.3 weeks away, 1.3 pay checks away from a shelter
In other words, a person with a problem
So when experts say, “Let’s get to the root of the problem
Let’s take control of the problem
So if you take control of the problem you can solve the problem.”
Now often this doesn’t work at all because the situation is completely out of control
Cause only an expert can deal with the problem
Only an expert can deal with the problem
Only an expert can deal with the problem
Now sometimes experts lend you money
And sometimes they lend you lots of money
And sometimes when the subprime mortgages collapse
And banks close and businesses fail
And the crisis spreads around the world
Sometimes other experts say:
“Just because aII the markets crashed
Doesn’t mean it’s necessarily a bad thing”
And other experts say: “Just because aII your friends were fired
And your family’s broke and we didn’t see it coming
Doesn’t mean that we were wrong”
And just because you lost your job and your house
And all your savings doesn’t mean you don’t have to pay for the bailouts
For the traders and the bankers and the speculators
Cause only an expert can design a bailout
And only an expert can expect a bailout
Cause only an expert can deal with the problem
And only an expert can deal with the problem
And only an expert can deal with the problem
And sometimes, if it’s really really really hot
And it’s July in January
And there’s no more snow and huge waves are wiping out cities
And hurricanes are everywhere
And everyone knows it’s a problem
But if some of the experts say it’s no problem
And other experts claim it’s no problem
Or explain why it’s no problem
Then it’s simply not a problem
But when an expert says it’s a problem
And makes a movie and wins an Oscar about the problem
Then all the other experts have to agree that it is most likely a problem
Cause only an expert can deal with the problem
Only an expert can deal with the problem
Only an expert can deal with the problem
And even though a county can invade another country
And flatten it. And ruin it. And create havoc and civil war in that other country
If the experts say that it’s not a problem
And everyone agrees that they’re experts good at seeing problems
Then invading that country is simply not a problem
And if a country tortures people
And holds citizens without cause or trial and sets up military tribunals
This is also not a problem
Unless there’s an expert who says it’s the beginning of a problem
Cause only an expert can deal with the problem
Only an expert can deal with the problem
Only an expert can deal with the problem
Only an expert can see there’s a problem
And see the problem is half the problem
And only an expert can deal with the problem
Only an expert can deal with the problem
Qualtrics: Uploading CSV and Using Piped Text
Here’s a short tutorial I made on uploading the class CSV using Piped Text to send personalized bulk emails.
If you find this useful, let me know!
Saul
Uploading CSV and Using Piped Text
To email surveys to the class, you’ll first need to import the class contact list into Qualtrics.
Go to the Contacts tab and press the Create Contact List button: 
After giving your Contacts List a name, you’ll be prompted to import the contacts file. In this case, that’s GreenWorld_2017 B.csv.
Click Browse… and select the CSV file.
At this point, there’s a couple of errors that can happen. You can skip this section of the upload works normally.
Error: Unsupported File Type. Make sure you’ve unzipped the CSV file. It should be GreenWorld_2017 B.csv, not GreenWorld_2017 B.csv.txt. You may need to use the password sent out earlier in order to unzip the file.
Error: The CSV file contains one or more empty headers. If you get this error, Make sure your unzipped CSV file looks normal. Open it in Excel and delete anything crazy. (A column of gibberish is crazy.) Ideally, it’ll look something like the below screenshot. (I’ve changed the e-mail addresses for the screenshot, but they should be accurate in your CSVs.)
[this image has been removed to preserve student privacy.
— The Management]
After importing, Qualtrics will ask you to Verify Fields. If things look okay, click the Add Contacts button.
Qualtrics allows you to send bulk send e-mails through the distributions panel, so go there.
Select the emails tab and then click the compose email button.
Press the Select Contacts button and scroll down to My Library. In here, you should be able to find the list of contacts you imported earlier. In this case, pressing “Select Entire Contact List” should add all sixteen students.
After this, it’s easy! Just write in what you want to write in for the e-mail, making sure to keep the survey link intact.
If you want to have your e-mail address participants by their first name, you can do so with Piped Text.
The Piped Text button looks like an “a” in brackets. Use the dropdown menu and select the option for Contacts Field, then for first name:
The Recipient First Name option will look like this in the body of your e-mail: ${m://FirstName}
This will look weird on your end, but when your recipient gets the e-mail, it won’t.
You can also copy this syntax and put it in the subject line to use Piped Text there.
Good Luck!
Saul
(GreenWorld, class of Spring 2017)
Aluminum
Sometimes it is well-marked. Sometimes not. Experience has proven that danger in plain sight is often difficult to detect. The axiom in advertising is, “you see what you know and know what you see.” It follows that the more you learn, the more you will see.
Hopefully, you know this and it is why you have taken this course.
— Peter Terezakis
Watch The Age of Aluminum
Note: there is partial female nudity at specific time segments of the film.
Chronic-Aluminum-Alzheimers-JR_Walton (pdf)
