August 12, 2020
Mark Kayser (Hertie)
“Media Effects in the Economic Vote”
(with Michael Peress, SUNY Stony Brook)
ABSTRACT
That the economy influences support for the government is a cornerstone of electoral research, but how this comes about is less understood. Sophisticated voting behavior – such as the moderating effects of globalization, cross-national benchmarking and sociotropic voting – is difficult to reconcile with low levels of voter knowledge, suggesting a possible role for the media in the economic vote. Until now, however, data restrictions have limited the type and extent of empirical research. Using automated analysis of over 2 million articles related to the economy in six languages in 32 mainstream newspapers in 16 developed countries, we demonstrate that the effect of economic growth (but less so changes in unemployment and inflation) on vote choice is indeed partially mediated by news coverage, with about 30 percent of the effect coming through the media. Not only does this establish a role for the media in the economic vote but it also suggests an additional path for media effects on elections. When economic reporting deviates from the economy prior to an election it can influence campaigns and voting, as we detail in several examples.