Sarah Bermeo (Duke) and David Leblang (Virginia)
Climate Change, Income Shocks and Violence: Understanding Migration from Central America
Abstract
Negative effects of climate change are expected to produce large increases in migrants in the coming decades. The mechanisms by which climate change will lead to increased migration are not well theorized. We conceptualize climate change as producing negative income shocks. These shocks alter the relationship between income and migration that would be predicted based on the general level of development in a country. There is ample evidence of a positive relationship between increased income from development and emigration for a wide band of country income levels. This relationship is reversed when a country experiences a negative income shock: lower income due to a shock can increase migration, leading to a negative relationship between income and migration. Further, we hypothesize that the emigration rate due to a shock is likely to be influenced by the viability and attractiveness of internal migration options. We test our hypotheses using subnational data on apprehensions of Honduran migrants at the U.S. southern border between 2012 and 2019, obtained from a Freedom of Information Act request. We find that departments within Honduras that experienced a negative income shock due to low rainfall have increased apprehensions at the U.S. border the following year. When violence levels are high in a department the magnitude of this relationship increases, suggesting that worse local conditions lead to increased emigration. These results have practical applications for policymakers considering responses to climate change
that might ease migration pressures.