By 2061, Manhattan will experience moderate shifts in temperature, frequency of extreme weather events, and sea level rise. New York City will experience sea level rise in the range of seven to 29 inches higher than recorded levels in 2000 (recent studies suggest actual sea level rise will be towards the higher end of that range[1]). The sea level rise will push saltwater further up the Hudson and Delaware estuaries, infiltrating NYC’s fresh water supply. The city will experience intensified and more frequent storms, and instances of heavy rainfall are expected to increase. Mean annual precipitation increases projected by global climate models are 4 to 11 percent by the 2050s[2]. Higher sea levels and increased storms combined will flood coastal areas. The result of heavier rainfall means that100-year flood events could occur every 35-55 years by midcentury, floods affect NYC’s subway system, highways, air and rail transport, and most waterfront structures. The financial district is particularly prone to flooding during a flood. In terms of temperature shifts, the mean annual temperatures are expected to rise by three to five degrees by mid-century. High temperatures also adversely affect NYC water supplies because evapotranspiration increases the growth of infectious microorganisms in public water systems. As a result, disease will spread faster and have a wider reach. Heat waves, which are currently defined as three consecutive days with maximum temperatures above 90°F, are projected to occur more frequently and last longer[3]. Declining air quality, caused by the increase in formation of ground-level ozone, will lead to increased cardiovascular illness and respiratory disease.
Out of the list of challenges climate change presents, sea level rise poses the largest threat to Gallatin’s infrastructure and student body. One foot of sea level rise could occur as early as 2030, three feet by 2080. Gallatin is likely facing approximately two feet of sea level rise by 2061[4]: particularly vulnerable neighborhoods include Harlem, Battery Park City, Hudson Yards and Chelsea, and the Lower East Side and East Village. Close to 30,000 residents could be affected. Our model reflects the real threats rising sea levels pose to our school, NYC in general, and the world as a whole.
[1] Mehta, Michelle. New York, New York: Identifying and Becoming More Resilient to Impacts of Climate Change. New York: NRDC, 2009. NRDC.org. NRDC. Web. 4 Apr. 2017.
[2] “New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report Executive Summary.” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. N.p., 16 Feb. 2015. Web. 04 Apr. 2017.
[3] Cornell University College Of Agriculture And Life Sciences. “NEW YORK’S CHANGING CLIMATE.” CLIMATE CHANGE FACTS (2011): n. pag. Climatechange.cornell.edu. Oct. 2011. Web. 4 Apr. 2017.
[4] RPA. Under Water-How Sea Level Rise Threatens the Tri-State Region. NYC: Paw Prints, 2008. Library.rpa.org. RPA, Dec. 2016. Web. 4 Apr. 2017.