Although it approaches slowly and silently, without whipping winds and gushing rains, extreme heat is the most deadly form of extreme weather. Between 2010 and 2020, there were an estimated 12,000 premature deaths in the United States due to extreme heat, more than all other extreme weather hazards combined including tornadoes, flooding, hurricanes, wind, cold, lightning and winter storms. It is expected that the extreme heat threat to human health, livelihoods, and real estate will continue to intensify as climate change accelerates.
Exposure to temperatures above 95 make it harder for the human body to maintain its typical internal functioning at 98.6 degrees F. Adverse effects are amplified in people who are under 5, over 65, or have other conditions exacerbated by heat stress such as diabetes, heart disease, or schizophrenia.
Extreme heat is a particular challenge for the real estate industry. Heat temperatures typically intensify in real estate developments and cities because of a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect. City temperatures are up to 22 degrees warmer than surrounding suburban areas; indoor temperatures can be 20 degrees warmer than outside. This is because typical building materials discharge more heat into the surrounding environment than the natural landscape. Additionally, a lack of plants on a development site intensifies the raised temperatures because plants create microclimates as they release and absorb water vapor throughout the day.
What will this mean for the real estate industry?
Extreme heat will change migration patterns, property valuations, regulation, and most importantly, threaten the health and safety of residents. Location and construction type preferences will shift. New York City, for example, is expected to have the heat profile of Birmingham, Alabama by 2050.
Beyond the human effects, there is also the challenge to buildings and infrastructure. Certain materials may melt and warp, or electronics may not function properly in extreme heat. From a property development perspective this creates many opportunities to creatively mitigate the excessive heat on a site by increasing low-water landscaping, deploying shade and cooling structures, and utilizing new proptech and building materials.
There is also likely to be a shifting policy landscape. Some challenges are the way that a heat response cuts through so many levels of government agencies and the private sector. To solve this, the City of Miami appointed an extreme heat officer. Houston has a law which prevents electricity from being turned off during a heat wave. New York City launched the Cool Neighborhoods program, painting roofs white and establishing cooling centers with racial equity in mind.
Discussion Question:
How can the real estate industry prepare for extreme heat events?
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