Research

My research examines topics in International Relations, Comparative Politics and Political Economy.

Book manuscript in progress: Anticipating Instability. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith June 2024. Replication Materials.

 

Books

SpoilsofWar_6a (1) The Spoils of War

dictatorThe Dictator’s Handbook 2011 and updated 2022 version

 And If you want a quick primer, then check out Grey’s YouTube movie.

princePunishing the Prince

timingElection Timing

logicThe Logic of Political Survival

 

Selected Journal Articles

  1. Quo Pro Quo Diplomacy. 2024. Matt Malis and Alastair Smith. Games 15,14. https://doi.org/10.3390/g15020014
  2. The Punisher’s Dilemma. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, David Myatt, Alastair Smith and Scott Tyson. Journal of Politics. Forthcoming.
  3. UN Security Council Membership: Increased security and reduced conflict. Alastair Smith and James Vreeland. International Interactions. 49(4): 525-556 https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2023.2190589
  4. Institutional Change as a Response to Unrealized Threats: An Empirical Analysis. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith. Journal of Conflict Resolution, forthcoming
  5. International Negotiations in the shadow of elections. Justin Melnick and Alastair Smith. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 67(7-8): 1452-1481 https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027221139433
  6. A New Indicator of Coalition Size: Tests Against Standard Regime-Type Indicators. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith. Social Science Quarterly 2022 103(2): 365–379. https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.13123 Data at: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/UYLXRO.
  7. State Visits and Leader Survival. Matt Malis and Alastair Smith. 2021 American Journal of Political Science. 65(1): 241–256.State Visits.     
  8. Catalinac, Amy, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, and Alastair Smith. “ATournament theory of pork barrel politics: The case of japan.” Comparative Political Studies 53, no. 10-11 (2020): 1619-1655.   
  9. Motivating political support with group-based rewards. Alastair Smith and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. 2019. Journal of Theoretical Politics. 
  10. Malis, M., & Smith, A. (2019). A global Game of Diplomacy. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 31(4), 480-506.
  11. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith (2018), “Political Loyalty and Leader Health“, Quarterly Journal of Political Science: Vol. 13: No. 4, pp 333-361 
  12. Dual-Layered Coordination and Political Instability: Repression, Co-optation, and the Role of Information.  Scott Tyson and Alastair Smith. Journal of Politics 2018.  8(1): 44-58.
  13. Group incentives and rational voting. With Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Tom LaGatta. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 2016
  14. Competition and Collaboration in Aid-for-Policy Deals. With Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. International Studies Quarterly, 2016.
  15. Political Succession: A Model of Coups, Revolution, Purges and Everyday Politics With Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Journal of Conflict Resolution
  16. Political Economy of Income Tax Policies. With George Downs and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. Political Science Research and Methods. November 2015, pp 1 – 29
  17. Leader Turnover, Institutions, and Voting at the UN General Assembly. 2016. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 60(1): 143-163
  18. The Impact of Leader Turnover on the Onset and the Resolution of WTO Disputes. Talya Bobick and Alastair Smith. Review of International Organizations. 2013. 8:423–445
  19. Leader Survival and Natural Disasters, with Alejandro Quiroz Flores. British Journal of Political Science  October 2013, 43(4): 821 – 843
  20. Aid: Blame It All on “Easy Money” with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. Journal of Conflict Resolution June 2013 57: 524-537
  21. Domestic Explanations of International Relations. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith. 2012. Annual Review of Political Science 2012. 15:161–81
  22. Contingent Prize Allocation and Pivotal Voting with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita 2011.  British Journal of Political Science.
  23. Leader Survival, Revolutions, and the Nature of Government Finance with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita October 2010.  American Journal of Political Science. 54(4): 936-950
  24. The Pernicious Consequences of UN Security Council Membership with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita June 2010.  Journal of Conflict Resolution 54(5): 667-686
  25. A Political Economy of Aid with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
  26. Retesting Selectorate Theory: Separating the Effects of W from Other Elements of Democracy. With James Morrow, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, and Randolph Siverson. American Political Science ReviewAugust 2008.
  27. The Perils of Unearned Income 2008. Journal of Politics. 70(3): 780-793.
  28. Political Survival and Endogenous Institutional Change. (Forthcoming 2009) Comparative Political Studies (Coauthored with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita).
  29. Foreign Aid and Policy Concessions, 2007, with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 51(2): 251-284
  30. Divergent Beliefs in “Bargaining and the Nature of War” with Allan C. Stam. Journal of Conflict Resolution August 2006 50(4): 614-618.
  31. Credibility in Compliance and Punishment: Leader Specific Punishments and Credibility. With Fiona McGillivray, Journal of Politics, May 2006 68(2): 248-258.
  32. “Why International Organizations Will Continue to Fail Their Development Goals.” Perspective on Politics 3(3): 565-567.
  33. Qualitative Leverage and the Epistemology of Expert Opinion. With Sanford Gordon. Political Analysis, Summer 2005, 13(3): 280-291.
  34. Bargaining and the Nature of War. Coauthored with Allan Stam. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 2004, 48(6, December): 783-813. [Numerical Fix]
  35. Testing Novel Implications from the Selectorate Theory of War. Coauthored with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, James D. Morrow and Randolph M. Siverson. World Politics April 2004 56: 363-388.
  36. Quantitative Leverage Through Qualitative Knowledge: Augmenting the Statistical Analysis of Complex Causes,” 2004 with Sanford C. Gordon. Political Analysis 12: 233-255.
  37. The Impact of Leadership Turnover on Relations Between States. Coauthored with Fiona McGillivray.International Organization. 58 Summer 2004: 567-600.
  38. Election Timing in Majoritarian Parliamentary Systems 2003. British Journal of Political Science, 33, 379-418.
  39. Political Institutions, Policy Choice and the Survival of Leaders with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, James Morrow and Randolph Siverson. British Journal of Political Science. Volume 32  Issue 04  October 2002 p.559-590
  40. Honest Threats: The Interaction of Reputation and Political Institutions in International Crises. With Alexandra Guisinger. Journal of Conflict Resolution. April 2002 Vol 46. No. 2 pp. 175-200.
  41. “Payment, Protection and Punishment: The Role of Information and Reputation in the Mafia.” With Federico Varesse. Rationality and Society Vol 13. No. 3 August 2001.
  42. Trust and Cooperation through Agent Specific Punishments. Written with Fiona McGillivray.International Organization. 54,4 Autumn 2000, p. 809-824.
  43. An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace written with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, James D. Morrow, and Randolph M. Siverson American Political Science Review. December 1999. December 93(4):791-808.
  44. Testing Theories of Strategic Choice: The Example of Crisis Escalation. American Journal of Political Science Vol. 43 No. 4 p. 1254-1283.
  45. So You Say You Want a Revolution: A Game Theoretic Explanation of Revolution in Repressive Regimes  Journal of Conflict Resolution June 1999 with John Peter Ginkel
  46. “Policy Failure and Political Survival: the Contribution of Political Institutions” Journal of Conflict Resolution 43 (April 1999) with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, James D. Morrow, and Randolph M. Siverson.
  47. “International Crises and Domestic Politics” American Political Science Review, September 1998. Vol. 92. No.3. p. 623-638.
  48. “Fighting Battles, Winning Wars.” Journal of Conflict Resolution June 1998 Vol. 42, No. 3, pp.301-320.
  49. Extended deterrence and alliance formation. 1998. International Interactions 24(4): 315-343.
  50. “The Success and Use of Sanctions” 1996. International Interactions Vol. 21, No. 3 p. 229-245.
  51. “To Intervene Or Not To Intervene: A Biased Decision” 1996. Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 40, No. 1, p. 16-40.
  52. “Diversionary Foreign Policy in Democratic Systems” 1996. International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 40, No. 1, p. 133-153.
  53. “Alliance Formation and War,” 1995. International Studies Quarterly Vol. 39, No. 4, p.405-425.

Selected Chapters

  1. Regime Type, War Aims, and Coalition Member Effort in Combat, Zielinski, Rosella Cappella and Grauer, Ryan and Smith, Alastair. 2023 in Understanding Battlefield Coalitions p.161—188. Routledge

Unpublished Papers

  1. The Political Economy of Corporate Fraud: A Theory and Empirical Tests. By Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith
  2. Political Succession: A Model of Coups, Revolution,Purges and Everyday Politics.  Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith